Votehub Electoral College Bias %
Poll aggregator: PollyVote (aggregator of poll aggregators EC counts), 270toWin (Forecasts Maps of Consensus and Polls), RealClearPolitics (RCP Latest Polls), Electoral-vote.com (EC State Maps),
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Prediction market: 2020 Polymarket (map on 270toWin), 2018 Kalshi, 2014 PredictIt, 1988 Iown Electronic Markets IEM,
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General Election: McCain vs. Obama
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Obama (D) | McCain (R) | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 10/29 - 11/03 | -- | -- | 52.1 | 44.5 | Obama +7.6 |
| Marist | 11/03 - 11/03 | 804 LV | 4.0 | 52 | 43 | Obama +9 |
| Battleground (Lake)* | 11/02 - 11/03 | 800 LV | 3.5 | 52 | 47 | Obama +5 |
| Battleground (Tarrance)* | 11/02 - 11/03 | 800 LV | 3.5 | 50 | 48 | Obama +2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 11/01 - 11/03 | 3000 LV | 2.0 | 52 | 46 | Obama +6 |
| Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby | 11/01 - 11/03 | 1201 LV | 2.9 | 54 | 43 | Obama +11 |
| IBD/TIPP | 11/01 - 11/03 | 981 LV | 3.2 | 52 | 44 | Obama +8 |
| FOX News | 11/01 - 11/02 | 971 LV | 3.0 | 50 | 43 | Obama +7 |
| NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl | 11/01 - 11/02 | 1011 LV | 3.1 | 51 | 43 | Obama +8 |
| Gallup | 10/31 - 11/02 | 2472 LV | 2.0 | 55 | 44 | Obama +11 |
| Diageo/Hotline | 10/31 - 11/02 | 887 LV | 3.3 | 50 | 45 | Obama +5 |
| CBS News | 10/31 - 11/02 | 714 LV | -- | 51 | 42 | Obama +9 |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 10/30 - 11/02 | 2470 LV | 2.5 | 53 | 44 | Obama +9 |
| Ipsos/McClatchy | 10/30 - 11/02 | 760 LV | 3.6 | 53 | 46 | Obama +7 |
| CNN/Opinion Research | 10/30 - 11/01 | 714 LV | 3.5 | 53 | 46 | Obama +7 |
| Pew Research | 10/29 - 11/01 | 2587 LV | 2.0 | 52 | 46 | Obama +6HuffPost |
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